Thursday, February 20th, 2020:

• "Pride and Prejudice", February 19 - March 8 This isn’t your grandmother’s Austen! Bold, surprising, boisterous, and timely, this Pride and Prejudice for a new era explores the absurdities and thrills of finding your perfect (or imperfect) match in life. The outspoken Lizzy Bennet is determined to never marry, despite mounting pressure from society. But can she resist love, especially when that vaguely handsome, mildly amusing, and impossibly aggravating Mr. Darcy keeps popping up at every turn? Literature’s greatest tale of latent love has never felt so theatrical, or so full of life than it does in this effervescent adaptation. Thu. 7:30 p.m., Fri. 8 p.m., Sat. 2 p.m. & 8 p.m., Sun. 2 p.m. $17.50-$40. Playhouse on Park, 244 Park Rd. West Hartford, CT
• 39th Annual Connecticut Flower & Garden Show, February 20 - 23 The colorful, fragrant show covers almost three acres with the 2020 theme, "Connecticut Springs into Earth Day, " with creative and practical ideas for house, apartment and condo dwellers alike. Highlights include: Over an acre of gardens in full bloom, created by professional landscape designers and nonprofit organizations, and include naturalistic, low maintenance, native, organic, herb and pollinator gardens. The Federated Garden Clubs of Connecticut's 2020 Advance Standard Flower Show: more than 12,000 square feet of a design, horticulture and photography competition with more than 500 judged entries, all with the "Spring into Connecticut" theme. Over 300 booths of displays, activities, and shopping. More than 80 hours of seminars. Thu. 10 a.m.-7 p.m., Fri. & Sat. 10 a.m.-8 p.m., Sun. 10 a.m.-5 p.m. Adults $18, seniors (Thu. and Fri. only) $16, children (5-12) $5, under 5 free. Connecticut Convention Center, 100 Columbus Blvd. Hartford, CT

Friday, February 21st, 2020:

• 39th Annual Southeastern Connecticut Home Show February 21 - 23 Offers a diverse array of home products and services by local, state, and national vendors, presenting innovative and imaginative displays. Local crafts on display as well in a Home Show that combines high tech with hometown flair. Fri. 5 p.m.-9 p.m., Sat. 11 a.m.-8 p.m., Sun. 11 a.m.-5 p.m.. Adults $10, seniors $8, children (12 and under) free. Earth Expo & Convention Center, 1 Mohegan Sun Blvd. Uncasville, CT
• "Looped" February 21 - March 21 Looped by Matthew Lombardo depicts an actual 1965 recording session in which an intoxicated Tallulah Bankhead, played by Kelly Boucher, required eight hours to dub a single line from her final movie Die! Die! My Darling! While antagonizing the film editor, Danny Miller, assigned to the job. Fri. & Sat. 8 p.m. $37, Connecticut Cabaret Theatre, 31 Webster Square Rd. Berlin, CT
• "Daisies on Harlem's Doorstep", February 21 - 23 The lights and glitter of the Harlem Renaissance attract an innocent young woman searching for her sister. Daisy finds herself with the help of four very different women. An award-winning play by Sharece M. Sellem. Fri.-Sat. 7:30 p.m., Sun. 3 p.m. Adults $20; seniors, military, students $18; member $17. Donald L. Oat Theater at Norwich Arts Center, 62 Broadway, Norwich, CT
• Atlantic Broadband Garde Cinema Series: "Us" Director: Jordan Peele Writer: Jordan Peele Stars: Lupita Nyong’o, Winston Duke, Elisabeth Moss Studio: Universal Nominations: Screen Actors Guild: Outstanding Performance by Female Actor; Four Critics Choice Award nominations Awards: Critics Choice Award: Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie; New York Film Critics Circle Awards: Best Actress A mother and father take their kids for an idyllic summer getaway. Haunted by an unexplainable and unresolved trauma from her past and compounded by a string of eerie coincidences, Adelaide feels her paranoia elevate to high-alert as she grows increasingly certain that something bad is going to befall her family. After spending a tense beach day with their friends, Adelaide and her family return to their vacation home. When darkness falls, the Wilsons discover the silhouette of four figures holding hands as they stand in the driveway. Us pits an endearing American family against a terrifying and uncanny opponent: doppelgängers of themselves. Rated R. Presented in association with the Black Engineering Council of Electric Boat. The 2020 Atlantic Broadband Garde Winter Cinema Series Pass brings you – for one package price – twenty or more critically acclaimed and Oscar and Golden Globe nominated films with state-of-the-art 4K digital projection and full surround sound. Passes can be used by other than the purchaser. Limited availability so buy today! 7:30 p.m $12; series pass $62. Garde Arts Center, 325 State St. New London, CT
• Ice Cube, February 21 Widely regarded as one of the most important figures in Rap history, Ice Cube began his career two decades ago with N.W.A — aka the World’s Most Dangerous Group. After penning some of the most memorable lyrics on N.W.A’s groundbreaking tracks “Straight Outta Compton” and “Fuck Tha Police,” Ice Cube broke away at the height of the group’s success. As he moved on to launch his solo career, his debut studio album AmeriKKKa's Most Wanted (Priority, 1990) sold more than a million copies. A concept album about the fall and rise of the black man, Ice Cube’s solo sophomore effort Death Certificate (Priority, 1991) debuted at #2 on the Billboard 200, eventually selling over two million copies. His impressive musical career also includes the multi-platinum success of his two-part album War & Peace, as well as the hit albums Lethal Injection, Bootlegs & B-Sides, The Predator, the gold-certified and independently released Laugh Now, Cry Later, Raw Footage, and I Am The West (a 2010 release that debuted at #22 on the Billboard 200 and proved to be one of the most successful independent releases in Hip Hop that year). 7:30 p.m. $29-$39, Mohegan Sun Arena, 1 Mohegan Sun Blvd. Uncasville, CT
• "Sex N' the City - A Musical Parody" This “Super” Unauthorized Musical Parody follows your favorite single gals looking for love in the big city. The show tackles serious questions like "will I ever find the one," "can you ever really be over your ex," and "for the third time, it’s a neck massager!" Come join Carrie, Miranda, Charlotte, and Samantha on a hilarious trip through New York in the 1990s. 8pm, $35-$40, Shubert Theatre, 247 College St. New Haven, CT
• Fitz & the Tantrums, February 21 There came a point, in the time following the release of HandClap, the biggest song of Fitz and the Tantrums’ career, when its ascent crossed the threshold of successful, zoomed past game-changer, to just plain, WTF?! The double-platinum, Top 5 smash, which racked up 1.5 billion streams in China alone, was synched on countless shows from American Idol to The Oscars. Fitz and the Tantrums were invited to perform for the masses on primetime television and such cultural institutions as Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve, the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, and FOX’s Super Bowl preshow after “HandClap” become something of an unofficial theme song for the NFL. 8 p.m. $35-$55, Grand Theater at Foxwoods Resort Casino, 350 Trolley Line Blvd. Mashantucket, CT
• "Constellations", February 21 - March 7 How might the smallest change in our life dramatically alter its course? Playwright Nick Payne's brilliant love story explores Marianne and Roland relationship and all of its infinite possibilities. This exploration of love, science, heartbreak and hope raises the question, what is the difference between destiny and choice? Due to subject matter and language, this is not recommended for children. Fri.-Sat. 8 p.m., Sun. (March 1) 2 p.m, $20-$25, TheatreWorks New Milford, 5 Brookside Ave. New Milford, CT
• Champions of Magic, February 21 The five world-class illusionists that make up this mind-bending theatrical production are back on tour in 2020, following sell out shows across the globe, rave reviews and a run in London’s West End. Don’t miss this incredible show to entertain the entire family. With more than 30 million online views between them, this cast of top magicians includes international award-winners presenting incredible mind reading, stunning close-up magic and daring large-scale illusions. Their skills have been seen on screen around the world with appearances on The CW’s Penn & Teller: Fool Us, NBC’s Caught on Camera with Nick Cannon, The Today Show and Access Hollywood Live. Champions Of Magic has been seen by tens of thousands around the world, now’s your chance to see why fans return to see one of the world’s biggest touring illusion shows time and time again. 8 p.m., $41-$76, Fox Theater at Foxwoods Resort Casino, 350 Trolley Line Blvd. Mashantucket, CT

Saturday, February 22nd, 2020:

• Special Olympics Winter Games, February 22 - 23 Powder Ridge is proud to host Special Olympics Connecticut 2020 Winter Games. Over 900 athletes of all abilities from across the state are expected to participate. Events are free and open to the public. Spectators are encouraged to attend. Cross Country Skiing and Snowshoeing, Figure Skating and Speed Skating, Unified Floor Hockey and Skills, & Gymnastics. Sat. 9 a.m.-5 p.m., Sun. 9 a.m.-3 p.m., FREE, Powder Ridge Mountain Park & Resort, 99 Powder Hill Rd. Middlefield, CT
• From the Heart Racing, February 22 Join us for a Prize-Drawing Giveaway, 50/50, and fundraiser. All proceeds will help support causes such as school sports programs and diabetes relief. 1 p.m.-6 p.m., FREE, Witchdoctor Brewing, 168 Center St. Southington, CT
• A Tribute to Cher and Lady Gaga, February 22 Lisa Carter and Nicole Fuller bring the voices of Cher and Lady Gaga for a fantastic cabaret style tribute performance. 6 p.m., $55 (plus tax and service charge). Waters Edge Resort and Spa, 1525 Boston Post Rd. Westbrook, CT
• Disney's "Frozen Jr.", February 22 - 23 The students of the Warner Theatre Center for Arts Education will present the enchanting musical on the Warner's Main Stage! Based on the 2018 Broadway musical, Disney's Frozen Jr. brings Elsa, Anna, and the magical land of Arendelle to life, onstage. The show features all the memorable songs from the animated film. A story of true love and acceptance between sisters, Frozen Jr. expands upon the emotional relationship and journey between Princesses Anna and Elsa. When faced with danger, the two discover their hidden potential and the powerful bond of sisterhood. With a cast of beloved characters and load with magic, adventure, and plenty of humor, Frozen Jr. is sure to thaw event the coldest heart. Sat. 2 p.m. & 7 p.m., Sun. 2 p.m., $15, Warner Theatre, 68 Main Street, Torrington, CT

Sunday, February 23rd, 2020:

• The Bolshoi Ballet in HD: "Swan Lake" February 23 Prince Siegfried is summoned by his parents to choose a bride. However, he encounters a mysterious and magnetic swan-woman, Odette, by the lake and is captivated. His vow of eternal love to her will have irreversible consequences. Tchaikovsky’s essential masterpiece returns for a live broadcast of the most-beloved ballet in the classical canon. Technically challenging and filled with vibrant emotion, with a stunning and world-famous corps de ballet in perfect unison, the legendary love story between Prince Siegfried and the dual personalities Odette/Odile, born at the Bolshoi Theatre, is a must-see. 12:55 p.m., $15-$25., Ridgefield Playhouse, 80 East Ridge Rd. Ridgefield, CT
• "Pete the Cat", February 23 Everyone’s favorite rockin’ blue cat takes the stage in this musical performance. When the unsuspecting Biddle family takes in the fantastic feline, Pete the Cat rocks the family’s world with his strumming and strutting. Everybody loves Pete the Cat, well, everyone except Jimmy, the planet’s most organized second-grader. That all changes, of course, when Pete the Cat takes Jimmy on a once-in-a-lifetime road trip. Based on the New York Times #1 best-selling children’s books by authors Kimberly and James Dean, Pete the Cat is also a popular animated series on Amazon Prime Video. A Theaterworks USA production. Recommended for ages 5 and up. 2 p.m. $18-$22, Jorgensen Center for the Performing Arts, 2132 Hillside Rd. Storrs, CT
• Atlantic Broadband Garde Cinema Series: "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood", February 23 Director: Marielle Heller, Writers: Micah Fitzerman-Blue, Noah Harpster, Stars: Tom Hanks, Matthew Rhys, Chris Cooper, Studio: Sony, Nominations: Oscar for Best Performance (Tom Hanks); One Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Awards; Two Critics Choice Awards, Lloyd Vogel is an investigative journalist who receives an assignment to profile Fred Rogers, aka Mr. Rogers. He approaches the interview with skepticism, as he finds it hard to believe that anyone can have such a good nature. But Roger’s empathy, kindness and decency soon chips away at Vogel’s jaded outlook on life, forcing the reporter to reconcile with his own painful past. Tom Hanks portrays Mister Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, a timely story of kindness triumphing over cynicism, based on the true story of a real-life friendship between Fred Rogers and journalist Tom Junod. After a jaded magazine writer (Matthew Rhys) is assigned a profile of Fred Rogers, he overcomes his skepticism, learning about empathy, kindness, and decency from America’s most beloved neighbor. Rated PG. 3pm, $12, Garde Arts Center, 325 State St. New London, CT

Find more things to do in CT here!
Check out a newly released movie such as:

• Brahms: The Boy II
• The Call of the Wild
• Emma (Limited)
• Goldie (Limited)
• The Night Clerk (Limited)
• Premature (Limited)

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 10.6.17
*PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT*

Morning Levels

• US S&P futures are down 1-2 points.
• Asia: Japan Nikkei +0.30%, Japan TOPIX +0.28%, China closed, Hong Kong +0.28%, KOSPI closed, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +1.04%
• EuroStoxx 50 -0.26%, FTSE +0.17%, DAX +0.07%, CAC -0.17%, Italy -0.82%, Spain -0.91%
• USD (DXY) up 0.08%, EUR down 0.04%, GBP down 0.50%, JPY down 0.12%, CNY Onshore up 0.12%, CNH Offshore up 0.02%, AUD down 0.23%
• VIX up 0.65% to 9.25
• Gold up 0.13% to $1,269.01
• Silver down 0.11% to $16.62
• Copper up 0.25% to $305.40
• WTI Crude down 0.79% to $50.39
• Brent Crude down 0.18% to $56.90
• Natural Gas down 0.44% to $2.91
• Corn down 0.07% to $3.49/bu
• Wheat up 0.06% to $4.41/bu
• Bitcoin up 1.55% to $4,414.56
• Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.3bps at 1.500%, 10yr yields are up ~1.6bps at 2.364% and 30yr yields are up ~0.9bps at 2.899%
• Japan 10yr yields 0.045%, up ~1.0bps on the day
• France 10yr yields 0.750%, up ~1.9bps on the day
• Italy 10yr yields 2.156%, up ~1.8bps on the day
• Spain 10yr yields 1.704%, up ~1.8bps on the day
• Germany 10yr yields 0.474%, up ~2.2bps on the day

Trading Update

• What’s happening this morning? It was another slow evening of news other than the German Aug factory order numbers (which were very strong although the euro and Eurozone stocks are both in the red), a few US earnings reports (COST and YUMC), andsome M&A (GIMO, HON, JWN, PENN/PNK, SNCR, and more). The overall macro narrativeremains the same as it was at the Thurs close (see below for an update on the macro narrative as well as potential upcoming risks). The major Asian indices generally saw gains – TPX +0.28%, NKY +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.28%, HSCEI +0.54%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +1.04%, and India +0.5-7% (mainland China and Korea were both closed). There weren’t any huge themes in Asia although Macau casino stocks were weak in HK on back of underwhelming Golden Week visitor numbers (autos and financials led HK on the upside). Australia’s 1% rally was led by banks, miners, and telecoms. The major Eurozone indices are trading off small (~10-20bp); autos are outperforming while banks, retail, energy, and utilities lag. The GBP is extending its losses from Thurs amid more uncertainty around UK PM May (the DXY spiked ~50bp Thurs and is up small so far Fri morning). US S&P futures are trading down 1-2 points.
• Calendar for Fri 10/6 – the focus will be on the US jobs report for Sept (8:30amET), US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug (10amET), US consumer credit for Aug (3pmET), and Fed speakers (Kaplan 8:30amET on CNBC, Bostic 9:15amET, Dudley 12:15pmET, Kaplan 12:45pmET, and Bullard 1pmET). o US jobs preview – there is very little anticipation or focus on the Sept jobs report (Fri morning 8/6 8:30amET) as 1) most are anticipating large storm-related distortions and 2) at this point in the cycle it only requires ~75K monthly adds to keep the UR steady (as was discussed in this JPMorgan report http://bit.ly/2fbT6cE). The St is in print at +80K for adds (vs. ADP for Sept at +135K and Aug BLS +156K) w/a 4.4% UR (unchanged w/Aug) and wages +0.3% M/M and +2.5% Y/Y (vs. Aug +0.1% M/M and +2.5% Y/Y). It’s very difficult to see the Sept BLS report changing the near-term US monetary policy trajectory (w/ongoing normalization and a FF hike on 12/13). The potential for a hike on 11/1 is very low and if anything the Sept CPI on Fri 10/13 may be a more important data point than jobs on Fri 10/6. Instead, the bigger Fed uncertainty has nothing to do w/data or policy but instead concerns staffing (i.e. who will be the next chair? A Trump announcement could come as soon as next week – Powell and Warsh are the frontrunners according to media reports w/the former appearing to have a slight edge).

Top Headlines for Friday

• Eco data recap for Fri morning 10/6 – the big data came out of Germany where factory orders for Aug beat expectations by a wide margin (orders +3.6% M/M vs. the St +0.7% and +7.8% Y/Y vs. the St +4.7%). See JPMorgan’s comments on the German data (http://bit.ly/2y42sh4). Japan’s wage inflation figures for Aug were soft, as expected (http://bit.ly/2kuygr0). o Fed chair – markets would be comfortable w/any of the main candidates (including Powell, Warsh, Cohn, Yellen, etc.) w/the exception of one person: John Taylor. Bloomberg. o Fed update – Kansas City Fed President George spoke Thurs night and said the US economy needed further rates hikes (http://cnb.cx/2kqTiqj). JPMorgan’s Mike Feroli published an updated FOMC hawk/dove chart following the confirmation of Quarles (http://bit.ly/2z1jSti). o Japan’s “Party of Hope” unveils an economic agenda that pledges to rely less on aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus – Reuters http://reut.rs/2ghahXu o AUD hit as RBA’s Harper doesn’t rule out a rate cut in a WSJ article. http://on.wsj.com/2xW3nkD
• UK PM May the subject of more speculation amid disclosure of plot to topple her; former party chairman, Grant Shapps, said May’s leadership should now be challenged. Reuters http://reut.rs/2yMrmzB
• Spain/Catalonia – Spain’s Constitutional Court ordered the suspension of the Catalan parliament’s regional session scheduled for Mon; Catalonia had planned on declaring independence at the session. Reuters http://reut.rs/2xlDfjC o Spain’s gov’t will change rules and make it easier for firms to move their legal base out of Catalonia – Reuters http://reut.rs/2z1WQCF
• Tax update - there is a lot of focus on taxes in the US as the Senate Budget Committee (right at the Thurs close) and the full House (at ~1pmET Thurs afternoon) advance budget resolutions (the full Senate will presumably vote within the next two weeks). This is a necessary step in the tax process (as these resolutions contain the reconciliation instructions allowing tax to pass via a simple majority in the Senate) but also a relatively minor one. Far more complicated will be agreeing on rates, deduction schedules, deficits, etc., and if anything all the press in the last few days and weeks point to divisions within the GOP on these matters being larger than anticipated. o Schumer warns that the proposal to eliminate the SALT deduction will kill the GOP tax plan – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2xXX8KL o GOP desire to repeal the estate tax runs into resistance - from Republicans. As a result this piece of the 9/27 tax blueprint (among others) may wind up being scrapped - WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2gf9G8E o Fed officials express concern over tax plans – Fed officials warned the tax plan may only provide a temporary boost to growth while fueling inflation and driving debt to unsustainable levels – Reuters http://reut.rs/2xWMrdG
• Republican headaches keep growing as donors withhold money, a tax consensus fails to materialize, and “establishment” figures depart the scene (Strange losing to Moore, Corker retiring, etc.). Republican leaders are increasingly concerned about the party’s grip on the House and Senate should it fail to pass a tax bill. Leaders “fear that the inchoate populism that Mr. Trump personifies, and which Mr. Bannon is attempting to weaponize against incumbents, is on the march” – NYT http://nyti.ms/2y3lUKT
• Trump looks to jolt NAFTA – the White House is considering a proposal that would represent a radical shift to the principles underlying NAFTA. According to rule changes being considered, automobiles would need to have a specific level of US-made content in order to qualify for tariff breaks (right now autos only need to have a specific level of content from within the NAFTA region). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2y4LXlo
• Trump makes cryptic comment ahead of a dinner with US military leaders. Trump said the dinner might represent “the calm before the storm”. Asked repeatedly by reporters to clarify his comments, Trump said, “You’ll find out” – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2xXI2r6
• Trump was “furious” over NBC’s Tillerson “moron” article; John Kelly was forced to rearrange his schedule and stayed in Washington in order to try and calm tensions – NBC. http://nbcnews.to/2fOGx3B
• Iran/Trump – Trump will “decertify” the Iran nuclear accord next week (speech on 10/12) and declare the agreement as not being in the US national interest according to the Washington Post (article out at ~2:40pmET Thurs afternoon). This is consistent w/what the AP and Politico reported earlier in the week. Note that Trump’s 10/12 declarations won’t end the Iranian nuclear pact as it will be up to Congress whether re-impose sanctions on Tehran (and Trump will hold off on recommending such a step). Washington Post http://wapo.st/2z1zeOw o Decertifying the Iran Deal Wouldn’t Have to Kill It – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2y40dKY
• North Korea – US lawmakers are pressuring the Trump White House to toughen sanctions against North Korea – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xlKdVQ
• The Economist's lead article this week speaks to sentiment at the moment and this is one of the big reasons why stocks are proving to be so resilient. "Asset prices are high across the board. Is it time to worry?" (http://econ.st/2xVXOjv). o The WSJ notes that a key European junk-bond index is now yielding less than 10yr US TSYs although it offers a reasonable explanation for this ostensibly irrational price level – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xkwYVb
• Company-specific news update from Thurs night. There were a few earnings reports out Thurs AMC but for the most part it was another slow evening. COST EPS beats thanks to better SG&A and favorable tax while GMs were light; Sept same-store-sales beat w/upside in the US (the stock ended down 3% during the Thurs after-hours trading session). YUMC’s results came in ahead of expectations (EPS/same-store-sales) and it increased capital return. SNCR reentered M&A talks w/Siris Capital (Siris is looking to buy SNCR’s Intralinks and may take a ~20% equity stake in SNCR); SNCR ended up ~27% during the Thurs after-hours trading session. According to the WSJ, HON is pursuing an acquisition of Evoqua Water Tech in a deal that could be worth $3B (http://on.wsj.com/2yseCSp). The WSJ reported (during trading on Thurs http://on.wsj.com/2xjE24p) on merger talks between PENN and PNK (the firms have been unable to agree to terms but PENN is still interested in buying PNK).
• JWN buyout not completely dead – the Nordstrom family is exploring a new deal structure w/Leonard Green that would involve less debt. The family is trying to raise more equity (although it isn’t clear where the money will come from). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2ggTvbh
• GIMO – Elliot’s takeover talks w/the company have ground to a halt according to Reuters over price disagreements – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNCepo
• SUM, ASHG – SUM has made a rival bid for ASHG as it looks to scuttle the existing Ash Grove-CRH PLC transaction. Ash Grove’s board said the offer could result in a superior proposal and that it would engage in talks with the third party. Bloomberg.
• AMZN: the one market where Amazon is failing to dominate: Hollywood. The WSJ discusses AMZN’s failure to become a force in content. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xZcJtr
• Macau casino stocks slump during Fri trading as Golden Week visitor numbers disappoint expectations – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2fOuGmd

Identifying risks – what could go wrong?

• Reflation enthusiasm is undercut by less aggressive CB normalization, dramatic curve flattening, and/or a softening in nominal growth. Of all the reflation pieces (monetary policy normalization, expansionary fiscal policy, firming inflation, and ongoing real growth strength), the last piece (real growth) is increasingly being taken for granted.
• Bank investors wind up focusing too much on reflation/yields (which are tailwinds) but miss weakening credit (higher provisions) and tepid loan growth.
• The first speech by the next Fed chair unsettles sentiment (assuming the chair isn’t Yellen).
• The tax process slows in Washington as Republicans prove incapable of reaching a consensus on rates, deductions, and deficits.
• Paul Ryan decides to “pull a Boehner”, stepping down as Speaker out of frustration with his inability to pass legislation.
• The final tax bill results in materially higher rates for upper-income Americans.
• May winds up stepping down as UK PM, sowing ongoing Brexit uncertainty.
• Abe does much worse than anticipated during the upcoming Japan election (10/22).
• North Korea conducts an above-ground nuclear bomb test (or even worse, an atmospheric test).
• Iran decides to resume its nuclear weapons program, sparking an immediate escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions (Trump’s Iran speech is coming up on 10/12).
• Washington introduces (or threatens to introduce) tough new regulations aimed at internet/social media companies following the Russia election investigations (note that US internet giants will be testifying before Congress on 11/1).
• Prominent members of the Trump team decide to leave the gov’t (the market would be particularly sensitive to Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly, and/or Cohn departing; recent media reports suggest the Tillerson-Trump relationship is particularly strained).

Macro Update

• The pro-reflation bias commenced back on 9/11 and has been propelled ever since by ongoing real growth strength, firming inflation, normalizing monetary policy/rhetoric, and expansionary fiscal policy (in particular in the US w/the 9/27 tax blueprint but also in Germany following that country’s election outcome and fin min change).
• This enthusiasm can extend for a few more weeks but the ECB/BOE decisions (on 10/26 and 11/2, respectively) will mark the culmination of a series of pro-reflation catalysts/developments and thus the trade may enter a period of extended consolidation around those central bank events.
• Meanwhile the nuances of this present reflation process aren’t being appreciated – growth and corporate earnings are late-cycle (not early), multiples are already rich (although not necessarily ridiculous), inflation is only very gradually firming to target, the economy faces enormous structural headwinds in the form of labor supply and productivity growth, and while central banks are normalizing policy will stay extremely accommodative for years to come (the structural headwinds and slow tightening pace will prevent yields from materially rising and curves from significantly steepening).
• The tenor of sentiment is beginning to evolve and there is definitely greater frustration w/people being forced to participate in a tape many don’t particularly love at present levels – this helps fuel runs such has occurred over the last few weeks (the SPX hasn’t closed in the red since Mon 9/25) but it also makes for a precarious setup w/a lot of weak “renters” who will be quick to sell the minute momentum pauses.
• Bottom Line: the lack of major catalysts is helping the rally propagate and the calendar is relatively clear until earnings (which kick off w/banks on Thurs 10/12). The reflation impetus will likely stay in place into the ECB/BOE (10/26 and 11/2, respectively) after which a consolidation (at least) is likely (note that a lot of the “easy” tax steps are occurring now – the blueprint on 9/27, the budget resolutions, etc. However, reaching a consensus on rates, deductions, and deficits will be extremely difficult and this will become more apparent later in Oct and into Nov, around the same time as the ECB/BOE decisions).

Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Oct 9

• Calendar for the week of 10/9 – overall it should be a relatively slow week although a few items are in focus. The current reflation emphasis makes the US CPI on Fri 10/13 prob. the single most important eco data point of the week but there are other numbers in focus (German trade/IP for Aug and China imports/exports for Sept). The CQ3 earnings season kicks off in earnest with the banks on Thurs and Friday. Away from scheduled events, media reports suggest Catalonia could formally declare independence on Mon (although this could easily be delayed following court challenges and as the region’s leaders seek a settlement w/Madrid) while the White House may unveil its infrastructure spending blueprint during the week of 10/9 (http://bit.ly/2wwiop9). South Korean security officials have warned that North Korea may fire additional missiles between 10/10 and 10/18 while Trump’s Fed chair selection could come soon (media reports suggest Powell and Warsh are the two frontrunners). Trump is expected to deliver an Iranian policy speech on/around Thurs 10/12 during which he will declare the nuclear deal as no longer being in the US national interest. HON has said it will announce its formal portfolio review decision prior to earnings (media reports, including on CNBC, suggest it will retain its aerospace unit).
• Calendar for Mon 10/9 – the day should be pretty quiet owing to the US Columbus Day holiday (equities will be open but fixed income is closed). The focus will be on the China FX reserve numbers for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning 10/7), the China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning), Germany’s industrial production for Aug (2amET), and earnings (LVMH reports results after the European close).
• Calendar for Tues 10/10 – the focus will be on the German trade figures for Aug (2amET), a bunch of analyst meetings (including TECD, Santander, WDAY, and WMT), the PG shareholder meeting (at which the Trian/Peltz board seat request will be voted on), and earnings (CUDA after the close).
• Calendar for Wed 10/11 – the focus will be on the US JOLTs report for Aug (10amET), Fed minutes from the 9/20 meeting (2pmET), analyst meetings (KR), and earnings (DAL, BLK, FAST, and OZRK before the open).
  
• Calendar for Thurs 10/12 – the focus will be on Eurozone IP for Aug (5amET), the US PPI for Sept (8:30amET), Trump’s Iran speech, analyst meetings (BOX, HPQ, LSCC, and WDC), and earnings (C, DPZ, JPM, LNN, Sky PLC, and Tata Consultancy pre-open).
  
• Calendar for Fri 10/13 – the focus will be on China’s imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning), the US CPI for Sept (8:30amET), US retail sales for Sept (8:30amET), the Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct (10amET), US business inventories for Aug (10amET), analyst meetings (SAFM), and earnings (BAC, DRFG, FHN, FRC, JBHT, Man Group, PNC, and WFC pre-open).
  

Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months

• China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
• US jobs report for Sept – Fri 10/6.
• US infrastructure spending - the Trump White House may unveil its long-anticipated infrastructure plan during the week of 10/9 according to House Transport chairman Rep. Bill Shuster.
• North Korea - South Korea’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18 (Reuters).
• WMT analyst meeting – Tues 10/10 (note that KR has an analyst meeting the next day, Wed 10/11).
• PG shareholder meeting – Tues 10/10 (decision to be made on Peltz’s board seat request).
• Fed minutes – minutes from the 9/20 meeting will be released Wed 10/11. 2pmET.
• HON – the co will announce its portfolio review decision before earnings in Oct.
• Iran - Trump is planning to deliver an Iran policy speech on 10/12 and he is expected to say that the landmark 2015 nuclear deal is no longer in the U.S. national security interest (AP)
• Bank earnings – the CQ3 earnings season kicks off w/Citigroup and JPM Thurs morning 10/12 while BAC, PNC, and WFC all report Fri 10/13.
• US inflation – the Sept CPI will hit Fri 10/13.
• IMF/World Bank - 2017 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. Oct 13-15 in Washington.
• CQ3 earnings – the week of Mon 10/16 is the first busy week of the CQ3 reporting season.
• Fed chair decision during the week of 10/16? Based on Trump’s “two to three” weeks comment (on Fri 9/29), his decision on a Fed chair could come as soon as the week of 10/16 (this week is also the first busy period of the CQ3 earnings season, the deadline for Trump to rule on the Iran nuclear deal, and the beginning of the China National Congress on 10/18). Media reports suggest the Fed chair frontrunners are Warsh and Powell followed by Yellen and Cohn.
• China - the National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts Oct 18.
• China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning) – Thurs morning 10/19.
• EU leaders hold summit in Brussels. Oct 19-20. Brussels.
• Japan – the country will hold snap elections on Sun 10/22.
• Flash PMIs for Oct – Tues 10/24
• ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Oct 26. The ECB is expected to provide guidance on LSAP tapering at this meeting (St assumes LSAP drops from EU60B now to EU40B w/6 month extension).
• US Q3 GDP report – Fri 10/27
• US inflation – US PCE for Sept. Mon 10/30.
• US wage inflation – Q3 ECI (Employment Cost Index) Tues 10/31.
• Fed meeting – decision Wed 11/1 (no press conf. or supplemental).
• FB/TWTR testifying before Senate on Russia and the election – Wed 11/1.
• BOE decision – Thurs 11/2. The BOE is expected to hike rates at this meeting.
• Trump trip to China – he is scheduled to visit China in November.
• GE – the co will likely hold an analyst meeting 11/13 at which it will provide a refresh of its long-term financial guidance.
• US inflation – the Oct CPI will hit on Wed 11/15.
• Fed meeting minutes (from the 11/1 meeting) – Wed 11/22.
• Flash PMIs for Nov. Fri 11/24.
• OPEC meeting – the next formal OPEC leaders meeting is Nov 30 (a decision on extending the production agreement beyond Mar ’18 could be reached at this gathering).
• US gov’t funding/debt ceiling – current legislation funds the gov’t and suspends the debt ceiling until 12/8 (the debt ceiling is unlikely to become binding again until “well into” 2018).
• Alabama special Senate election – Tues 12/12.
• Fed meeting – decision Wed Dec 13. There will be a press conf. and supplemental. The Fed is expected to hike rates at this meeting.
• ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Dec 14.
• BOE decision – Thurs 12/14.

Opinion/Interesting-but-not-immediately-impactful/intra-day boredom reading

• Why the Fed Won’t Stand in the Way of Trump’s Tax Cuts – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2hPLq0H
• Will Trump Trumpify the Fed? NYT http://nyti.ms/2fWGred
• Tax Reform Down Payment – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2xW9UM1
• Why America Needs Tax Reform – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2xXNkTe
• The case for brinksmanship with North Korea – Washington Post http://wapo.st/2wBi3Sk
• Decertifying the Iran Deal Wouldn’t Have to Kill It – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2y40dKY
• The nuclear issue isn’t the real Iranian challenge – Washington Post http://wapo.st/2yMrZcb
• Siemens CEO: America Invented Globalization—Why Give It Up? The Atlantic http://theatln.tc/2y47Zo2
• The Culture of Death—and of Disdain – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2fR1r2i
• Guns and the Soul of America – NYT http://nyti.ms/2y52LsK
• The Cancer in the Constitution – NYT http://nyti.ms/2kswg2r
• My company’s carbon footprint is the size of a small country. We need to act. Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2fWXc8V
• The single greatest thing Republicans need right now – Washington Post http://wapo.st/2wBTG76
• 1949: The Year That Set the Course of Chinese-American Relations – NYT http://nyti.ms/2z2hGSv M&A/Strategic Actions
• Brooklyn Nets – multiple suitors are in talks to buy a 49% stake in the NBA deal. Mikhail Prokhorov is seeking a valuation of >$2B for the entire team. NY Post. http://nyp.st/2y3KFY0 o Brooklyn Nets – BABA denied that its vice chairman, Joseph Tsai, was in talks to buy a stake in the Nets – Reuters http://reut.rs/2yuCBRa
• GIMO – Elliot’s takeover talks w/the company have ground to a halt according to Reuters over price disagreements – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNCepo
• HON - according to the WSJ, HON is pursuing an acquisition of Evoqua Water Tech in a deal that could be worth $3B (http://on.wsj.com/2yseCSp).
• HPQ, Samsung – China said it will approve HPQ’s purchase of Samsung’s printer business – Reuters http://reut.rs/2y06khP
• JWN buyout not completely dead – the Nordstrom family is exploring a new deal structure w/Leonard Green that would involve less debt. The family is trying to raise more equity (although it isn’t clear where the money will come from). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2ggTvbh
• PENN, PNK - the WSJ reported (during trading on Thurs http://on.wsj.com/2xjE24p) on merger talks between PENN and PNK (the firms have been unable to agree to terms but PENN is still interested in buying PNK).
• Retailers helped through bankruptcy process – Reuters notes that many retailers are obtaining help during the bankruptcy process w/many being allowed to stay in business w/their store bases largely intact – Reuters http://reut.rs/2y3NcAN
• SNCR - On October 4, 2017, SNCR and Siris determined to restart discussions regarding a potential transaction. Specifically, Siris is offering to buy Intralinks for $915MM cash, invest $185MM for a convert worth ~20% of SNCR’s common shares, and cancel the ~6MM SNCR common shares it now owns.
• SUM, ASHG – SUM has made a rival bid for ASHG as it looks to scuttle the existing Ash Grove-CRH PLC transaction. Ash Grove’s board said the offer could result in a superior proposal and that it would engage in talks with the third party. Bloomberg.
• Unilever – the co is seeking PE bids for its spreads business by 10/19; a sale could be worth $8B – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNDYPe

Full catalyst list

• Fri Oct 6 – German factory orders for Aug. 2amET.
• Fri Oct 6 – US jobs report for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Fri Oct 6 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug. 10amET.
• Fri Oct 6 – US consumer credit for Aug. 3pmET.
• Fri Oct 6 – Fed speakers: Bostic, Kaplan, Bullard

• Sat Oct 7 – China FX reserves for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)

• Mon Oct 9 – China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
• Mon Oct 9 – German industrial production for Aug. 2amET.
• Mon Oct 9 – earnings after the European close: LVMH.
• Mon Oct 9 – Columbus Day holiday in the US (equities will be open while fixed income is closed).

• Tues Oct 10 – German trade balance for Aug. 2amET.
• Tues Oct 10 – analyst meetings: TECD, Santander, WDAY, WMT
• Tues Oct 10 – PG shareholder meeting
• Tues Oct 10 – earnings after the close: CUDA

• Wed Oct 11 – US JOLTs report for Aug. 10amET.
• Wed Oct 11 – Fed minutes from the Sept 20 meeting (2pmET).
• Wed Oct 11 – analyst meetings: KR
• Wed Oct 11 – earnings before the open: BLK, DAL, FAST, OZRK.

• Thurs Oct 12 – Eurozone industrial production for Aug. 5amET.
• Thurs Oct 12 – US PPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Thurs Oct 12 – analyst meetings: BOX, HPQ, LSCC, WDC.
• Thurs Oct 12 – earnings before the open: C, DPZ, JPM, LNN, Sky PLC, Tata Consultancy.
• Thurs Oct 12 – earnings after the close: EXFO

• Fri Oct 13 – China imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
• Fri Oct 13 – US CPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Fri Oct 13 – US retail sales for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Fri Oct 13 – US Michigan Sentiment for Oct. 10amET.
• Fri Oct 13 – US business inventories for Aug. 10amET.
• Fri Oct 13 – analyst meetings: SAFM
• Fri Oct 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, DRFG, FHN, FRC, JBHT, Man Group, PNC, WFC.

• Mon Oct 16 – China CPI/PPI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
• Mon Oct 16 – Eurozone trade balance for Aug. 5amET.
• Mon Oct 16 – earnings before the open: SCHW
• Mon Oct 16 – earnings after the close: BRO, IEX, NFLX, Rio Tinto

• Tues Oct 17 – Eurozone Sept auto registrations. 2amET.
• Tues Oct 17 – German ZEW survey results for Oct. 5amET.
• Tues Oct 17 – US import prices for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Tues Oct 17 – US industrial production for Sept. 9:15amET.
• Tues Oct 17 – US NAHB housing index for Oct. 10amET.
• Tues Oct 17 – earnings before the open: BMI, CMA, CSX, GS, GWW, HOG, JNJ, MS, Pearson, PLD, Remy Cointreau, UNH
• Tues Oct 17 – earnings after the close: ADTN, BHP, CP, CREE, IBM, LRCX, NAVI.

• Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Wed Oct 18 – US building permits fro Sept. 8:30amET.
• Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
• Wed Oct 18 – earnings before the open: ABT, Akzo Nobel, MTB, NTRS, USB
• Wed Oct 18 – earnings after the close: AA, AXP, BHE, CCI, CCK, EBAY, LLNW, SLG, TCBI

• Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
• Thurs Oct 19 – US Leading Index for Sept. 10amET.
• Thurs Oct 19 – earnings before the open: ADS, BBT, BK, DGX, DHR, GPC, KEY, Nestle, Pernod Ricard, PM, PPG, Publicis, RCI, Roche, SAP, SON, Thales, TRV, TSMC, TXT, Unilever, VZ, WBC.
• Thurs Oct 19 – earnings after the close: ATHN, ISRG, LHO, MXIM, NCR, PBCT, WDFC, WERN.

• Fri Oct 20 – US existing home sales for Sept. 10amET.
• Fri Oct 20 – earnings before the open: Assa Abloy, BHGE, CFG, CLF, Daimler, DST, GE, GNTX, KSU, SLB, STI, SYF, TomTom, Volvo.

• Mon Oct 23 – China Sept property prices (Sun night/Mon morning).
• Mon Oct 23 – US Chicago Fed Activity Index for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Mon Oct 23 – earnings before the open: HAL, HAS, ITW, KMB, STT, VFC
• Mon Oct 23 – earnings after the close: ARNC, CR, OI

• Tues Oct 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Oct. 4amET.
• Tues Oct 24 – US flash PMIs for Oct. 9:45amET.
• Tues Oct 24 – earnings before the open: AMTD, Anglo American, BASF, BIIB, CAT, CLB, CNC, FITB, GLW, GM, INFY, LLY, LMT, MAS, MCD, MMM, Novartis, PCAR, PHM, PNR, R, RF, SAH, SHW, SWK, WAT, WDR.
• Tues Oct 24 – earnings after the close: AKAM, AMP, CMG, COF, DFS, ESRX, IRBT, T, TSS, TXN.

• Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
• Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
• Wed Oct 25 – earnings before the open: ALK, ALLY, ANTM, Antofagasta, AOS, BA, BAX, Dassault Systemes, DPS, FCX, FLIR, Fresnillo, HBAN, Heineken, IP, IR, KO, LEA, LH, Lloyds Banking Group, NDAQ, NSC, NYCB, Peugeot, TMO, TUP, V, WBA, WEC.
• Wed Oct 25 – earnings after the close: ABX, ACGL, AFL, AMGN, CLGX, DLR, FFIV, FTI, KIM, LSTR, NOW, ORLY, PKG, PLXS, RJF, TSCO, UNM, VAR, XLNX.

• Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
• Thurs Oct 26 – earnings before the open: Aixtron, ALLE, ALV, Anheuser Busch, APD, Bayer, BMY, BSX, BWA, CCMP, CELG, CHTR, CMCSA, CME, Deutsche Bank, ENTG, EQT, F, HLT, MMC, NEM, Nokia, ODFL, Santander, Schneider Electric, UNP, UPS, WM, XEL.
• Thurs Oct 26 – earnings after the close: AIV, ATEN, CB, CDNS, EXPE, FLEX, FTNT, GILD, GOOG, HIG, INTC, LPLA, MSFT, NATI, PFG, SYK, VDSI, VRSN.

• Fri Oct 27 – China Sept industrial profits (Thurs night/Fri morning).
• Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
• Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
• Fri Oct 27 – earnings before the open: B, MRK, PSX, SC, TRU, Volkswagen, WY, XOM.

• Mon Oct 30 – US personal income/spending and PCE for Sept. 8:30amET.
• Mon Oct 30 – US Dallas Fed index for Oct. 10:30amET.
• Mon Oct 30 – analyst meetings: CSX
• Mon Oct 30 – earnings before the open: HSBC
• Mon Oct 30 – earnings after the close: AVB, CGNX, RE, RTEC, VNO

• Tues Oct 31 – US Employment Cost Index for Q3. 8:30amET.
• Tues Oct 31 – US Case-Shiller home price index for Aug. 9amET.
• Tues Oct 31 – US Chicago PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
• Tues Oct 31 – US Conference Board Sentiment readings for Oct. 10amET.
• Tues Oct 31 – earnings before the open: ADM, AET, Airbus, AMT, Barclays, BNP, CMI, ECL, GGP, K, MA, OSK, PFE, XYL.
• Tues Oct 31 – earnings after the close: APC, CHRW, CXO, WFT, X

• Wed Nov 1 – US ADP jobs report for Oct. 8:15amET.
• Wed Nov 1 – US Markit Manufacturing PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
• Wed Nov 1 – US Manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
• Wed Nov 1 – US construction spending report for Sept. 10amET.
• Wed Nov 1 – US auto sales for Oct.
• Wed Nov 1 – FOMC meeting decision. 2pmET.
• Wed Nov 1 – earnings before the open: AGN, APO, CLX, EL, GRMN, HFC, Novo Nordisk, ORBK, Standard Chartered, TAP, TRI.
• Wed Nov 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, BHF, BXP, CAVM, CSGS, FB, LNC, MANT, MET, MUSA, OXY, PRU, QCOM, ULTI, XPO.

• Thurs Nov 2 – US nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs for Q3. 8:30amET.
• Thurs Nov 2 – earnings before the open: ADP, AN, BCE, CI, Credit Suisse, DISCA, H, ICE, Royal Dutch Shell, Sanofi, Swiss Re, WRK.
• Thurs Nov 2 – earnings after the close: AAPL, AIG, CBS, CRUS, FLR, HLF, RMAX, SBUX, UNIT.
  
• Fri Nov 3 – US jobs report for Oct. 8:30amET.
  
• Fri Nov 3 – US trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
  
• Fri Nov 3 – US factory orders and durable goods orders for Sept. 10amET.
  
• Fri Nov 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
  

• Tues Nov 7 – US JOLTs jobs report for Sept. 10amET.
• Tues Nov 7 – US consumer credit for Sept. 3pmET.

• Thurs Nov 9 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Sept. 10amET.

• Fri Nov 10 – US Michigan Confidence preliminary numbers for Nov. 10amET.

• Tues Nov 14 – US PPI for Oct. 8:30amET.

• Wed Nov 15 – US CPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
• Wed Nov 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Nov. 8:30amET.
• Wed Nov 15 – US retail sales for Oct. 8:30amET.
• Wed Nov 15 – US business inventories for Sept. 10amET.

• Thurs Nov 16 – US import prices for Oct. 8:30amET.
• Thurs Nov 16 – US industrial production for Oct. 9:15amET.
• Thurs Nov 16 – US NAHB housing index for Nov. 10amET.

• Fri Nov 17 – US housing starts and building permits for Oct. 8:30amET.

• Mon Nov 20 – US Leading Index for Oct. 10amET.

• Tues Nov 21 – US existing home sales for Oct. 10amET.

• Wed Nov 22 – US durable goods for Oct. 8:30amET.
• Wed Nov 22 – US final Michigan Confidence numbers for Nov. 10amET.
• Wed Nov 22 – FOMC 11/1 meeting minutes. 2pmET.

• Fri Nov 24 – US flash PMIs for Nov. 9:45amET.

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I wanted to like it, but just couldn’t bring myself to do so. I’ve dissected and dismembered this movie with friends and relatives since its release in so much detail that I feel drained even before I begin this review. I have a funny relationship with this film. Despite pretty much enjoying all of Scorsese’s previous output and being a huge fan of crime movies, I can’t say The Departed really resonated with me. At first I hated it, then I warmed up to it, and then I went back to thinking it just wasn’t very good. After it had finished when I first saw it I just thought to myself well, is that it? There was no initial excitement when watching and no lasting impact after it was done. As sacrilegious as it is to say, is this Marty’s first boring movie?
I’ve actually seen The Departed more than any other Scorsese movie. These have been a series of failed attempts to work out just what the world sees in this film in order for it to justify its Best Picture win at the Oscars, its 85/100 Metascore and its general well-liked status in the movie world.
The Departed is a remake of the two year old Hong Kong hit Infernal Affairs (a superior film in my opinion) and concerns an undercover cop (DiCaprio) in an Irish mob in Boston and a mole in the police force (Damon) who attempt to weed each other out before they themselves get caught.
It’s 20 minutes into the film before any of this happens, or even the title appears for that matter. Before it does we get something of a prologue with Irish mobster Frank Costello (played by Jack Nicholson and based off of real life Irish mobster Whitey Bulger) narrating about his environment, the Knights of Columbus, JFK and black people. It’s the only narration we get throughout the whole movie and immediately after the Rolling Stones’ Gimmie Shelter is unleashed at full volume accompanied by short and slightly fragmented scenes of violence from Costello’s heyday and DiCaprio and Damon’s introduction into their fields of play in the film. It’s all a bit disorderly and has an amateurish feel to it, as if someone told a random fan to make a short Scorsese movie and they proceeded to throw all the cliches at the screen – DiCaprio, narrations, Gimmie Shelter, people getting shot in the back of the head, lengthy tracking shots, ‘the whole nine yards’ as police captain Queenan (played by Martin Sheen) would say.
If I was to find a rational explanation for the way the opening of the movie feels so detached from the rest of the film I’d say it’s because the start of the film showcases an older time, a previous generation. It was a time more wild and animalistic where the only surviving character of that environment is Frank Costello. It reminds me of Gangs of New York and the opening battle sequence, where the only person to come through the endeavour was Bill the Butcher. Everyone else involved in the battle had either died when the film’s main story happened or took their place in the new world of (somewhat) order and stability. It’s why the Butcher sticks out so much in the movie. Not only because of the terrific and wild performance by Daniel Day Lewis, but because he is essentially a caveman in an insurance salesman’s world and towards the end of the film even he knows he has no place in the new ever-changing America. Similarly, Jack Nicholson’s Costello comes off as someone who belongs in a different time away from the tuxedos and police warrants. It’s not only him though; many of the characters in The Departed come off as lions and wolves used to roaming the wild trapped in suits and behind wooden desks and piles of paperwork.
The jarring pacing of the film was a real problem for me. I had no sense of how much time had elapsed over the course of the movie and the one time a character had the chance to explain he merely shrugged “long time, long fucking time” which I agreed with completely. With a runtime of 2 and a half hours the movie is unable to match the brisk pacing of, say, Casino or Goodfellas and instead comes across as a dozen or so clumsily put together scenes in which characters talk tedious topics to each other, with the odd frame of unadulterated violence garnished in. I’m serious – while watching a Scorsese mob & cops film I was actually checking to see how long was left because I was so bored. There is no tension throughout the movie at all which made me unresponsive to scenes that were clearly meant to shock and awe. The dialogue is often vague and meaningless, and only of service when it is used to forward the plot. Take the scene between DiCaprio and Nicholson at the dinner, where they talk about DiCaprio’s father, school, sadness…all until I thought to myself what the hell are they talking about? To which, to my amazement, DiCaprio responds by asking “what the fuck are we talking about?!” Yikes!
The ambling and dreary nature of the movie might have been elevated by some decent acting. But despite the cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Alec Baldwin, Matt Damon, Mark Wahlberg, Martin Sheen, Ray Winstone and Jack Nicholson it pains me to say the performances were shambolic: DiCaprio was shaking, shrieking and squirming so much that it made Costello look like an idiot for not realizing that he was the rat in his crew, Damon looked like an awkward schoolboy as the ‘villain’ of the picture, Sheen seemed to be attempting to say his lines without spitting out his fake teeth, Winstone decided that the shooting schedule was the best time to start experimenting with every accent known to man, and Wahlberg’s profanity-fuelled, nostril-flared cop with little-man syndrome was so irritating that I hoped he would get shot in the head or thrown off a building. Ironically, he’s the only major male character that survives the runtime. Nicholson was the best of the bunch, bringing weight to his role where his presence is felt throughout the whole movie in spite of him playing an extension of his JokeR.P McMurphy characters. But even he, it seems, is somewhat sleepwalking his way through the film only waking up for the odd rat impersonation here and there. And nobody is buying that Boston accent for a second.
Sticking with the actors – something about the way the movie was shot makes it feel self-conscious as to who’s in it. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but as an example let me say that I knew that Matt Damon and Mark Wahlberg would have a fistfight as soon as I realized that both were cast in the film. The camera often stays wide enough so that two A list can fit into the frame, like the scene at the dock with Nicholson and Sheen, or the initial bar scene with Jack and Leo. It’s like the film-makers are screaming at you “Look, Jack Nicholson and Leonardo DiCaprio in the same movie! Aren’t you blessed!?” It’s things like this that made the film feel as though it takes place in a ‘movie world’ and not the gritty urban real life as it tries very hard to show us.
Scenes lead nowhere and as already stated, there is no tension. Why are these characters doing this? Where are they going now? What is happening here? It’s as if Scorsese is aware you’ve seen all the cop dramas and is not going to use up runtime on things that he thinks you’ve seen, and instead wisely uses it on scenes where the mob leader doodles naked nuns or someone says “FUCK!” really loudly. Speaking of which, the profanity in this movie is horrible. Aside from Nicholson, the cast come off as cringe worthy when spewing out filth. Don’t take me wrong, I am aware the language is supposed to be vulgar and not elegant – after all, these are street gangsters. But swearing on screen takes a little swagger, something that most of the cast lacks, which made them seem like teenagers trying to sound cool in front of their friends.
Editor Thelma Schoonmaker adopted a frantic style that didn’t sit well with me. Some cuts ran for a spit second and we were constantly jumping from scene to scene, camera angle to camera angle. Maybe it was supposed to come off as sharp and gritty, but it just felt unprofessional and clunky. Maybe substituting Scorsese’s coked up direction, which undermined any possible nail-biting from me, for a more subtle but equally stylish director would have been better. I always thought the plot to The Departed would fit snugly into Michael Mann’s filmography. Most of his movies concern two me on different sides of the law and in this case he’d have the third dynamic of Frank Costello to use. Or even a fourth if Queenan was made into a more major character, as was the initial intention when Robert De Niro was slated to play him.
And don’t get me started on the plot holes. This movie is plot hole Las Vegas. It’s plot hole galore with The Departed. But I’m not going to go into that, otherwise we’ll be here all day. All I can say is the plot feels so flimsily put together that even as a standard Hollywood thriller with a forced-happy ending it still doesn’t work. And neither does the horrible looking CGI blood effects which killed any possible thrill the movie could have had in one of its most pivotal scenes. I was too distracted by how crap the blood looked to take notice of the fact that the main character had just been unceremoniously shot in the face dead.
Are we really supposed to believe that of all the Councillors in the city both the rat and the mole fell for the same one? Or question what use Costello is as an FBI informant when he is clearly the biggest fish in the sea? Or how nobody realized that DiCaprio is the rat despite being the only one with a past in the police academy and the newest addition of the crew? And what’s with all the flip phones? And why does Wahlberg commit a murder right in the middle of- wait…I said I wasn’t going to speak about the plot, so I won’t. I can hold it. I’m mature. I can keep it in. Yes I can. I can.
There are some positives. Quite a few, in fact. But the problem is that most of the good stuff was already present in the original movie Infernal Affairs which, at the age of 4 when The Departed was released, begs the question as to why Scorsese’s remake even needed to be made. And it’s pretty embarrassing on the Academy’s part that the guy who made movies like Taxi Driver and Raging Bull finally won an Oscar for this film, but who cares about awards anyway?
All in all, The Departed is not going to become one of my favourite movies. Far from it. It remains an oddity in Scorsese’s filmography in the sense that it’s pretty much his only movie that I dislike. Plot contrivances, bad acting and hyperactive editing can all be forgiven, but when a film is boring it has committed the ultimate celluloid sin. In my book anyway.
https://cineranter.wordpress.com/2017/01/11/movie-review-the-departed/